Improving BBGM Composite Ratings
Now that we have automatically generated stats from NBA box data, we can generate better composite ratings using real NBA statistics. I built a few linear models (results below) targetting real data I’ll go over some of my proposed changes for the non-defensive compositeRatings
Proposed changes
These are all weighted averages and I’ll report the weights scaled so the largest one is 6
Usage
Add passing. Remove three point, height, dribbling
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| ins |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| spd |
2.0 |
2.0 |
| pss |
2.0 |
|
| fg |
2.0 |
4.0 |
| dnk |
2.0 |
4.0 |
| oiq |
1.0 |
2.0 |
| tp |
|
4.0 |
| hgt |
|
2.0 |
| drb |
|
2.0 |
Passing
Add speed and inside, remove dribbling
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| pss |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| spd |
2.0 |
|
| oiq |
2.0 |
3.0 |
| ins |
2.0 |
|
| drb |
|
2.4 |
Turnovers
Add height, and lower the effect of passing skill
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| ins |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| hgt |
4.0 |
|
| pss |
2.0 |
6.0 |
| oiq |
-6.0 |
-6.0 |
Shooting At the Rim
Adding strength and field goal percentage. Removing jumping and oIQ
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| hgt |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| stre |
3.0 |
|
| spd |
2.0 |
1.6 |
| dnk |
2.0 |
3.2 |
| fg |
1.0 |
|
| jmp |
|
4.8 |
| oiq |
|
1.6 |
Low Post Shooting
Just a reweighting
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| hgt |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| stre |
3.0 |
1.8 |
| spd |
3.0 |
0.6 |
| ins |
3.0 |
3.0 |
| oiq |
1.0 |
0.6 |
Mid Range Shooting
Our first big overhaul. Ability in dribbling, height, strengh, rebounding should all make you more likely/better at mid-range shooting. Three-point, free-throw, inside and passing abilities should make you less likely to do this.
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| fg |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| drb |
4.0 |
|
| hgt |
3.0 |
|
| stre |
2.0 |
|
| spd |
2.0 |
|
| reb |
1.0 |
|
| tp |
-1.0 |
|
| ft |
-1.0 |
|
| pss |
-2.0 |
|
| ins |
-2.0 |
|
| oiq |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
Three Point Shooting
Adding speed and free throw ability.
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| tp |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| spd |
1.0 |
|
| oiq |
1.0 |
0.6 |
| ft |
1.0 |
|
Free Throw Shooting
The regression really wants to bake oiq and speed into this but let’s leave it alone
Rebounding
Add inside, add three point (as a negative), remove jumping, decrease impact of height
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| reb |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| hgt |
4.0 |
6.0 |
| ins |
2.0 |
|
| stre |
1.0 |
0.3 |
| oiq |
1.0 |
1.5 |
| diq |
1.0 |
1.5 |
| tp |
-1.0 |
|
| jmp |
|
0.3 |
Stealing
Add strength.
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| diq |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| spd |
4.0 |
3.0 |
| stre |
1.0 |
|
Blocking
This one is mostly fin, but maybe add strength?
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| hgt |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| jmp |
3.0 |
3.6 |
| stre |
1.0 |
|
| diq |
1.0 |
1.2 |
Fouling
Add rebounding!
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| hgt |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| diq |
-2.0 |
-6.0 |
| reb |
-4.0 |
|
| spd |
-6.0 |
-6.0 |
Drawing Fouls
Adding inside ability, make it less likely that good free throw shooters get fouled. Don’t use speed or height.
| Feature |
Proposed |
Current |
| dnk |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| drb |
4.0 |
6.0 |
| ins |
3.0 |
|
| oiq |
2.0 |
6.0 |
| ft |
-3.0 |
|
| spd |
|
6.0 |
| hgt |
|
6.0 |
Regression Results
All weights
| Usage |
|
| ins |
10.0 |
| fg |
5.4 |
| spd |
4.1 |
| pss |
4.1 |
| dnk |
2.6 |
| oiq |
1.2 |
| reb |
-1.0 |
| ft |
-1.2 |
| diq |
-1.3 |
| jmp |
-2.4 |
| tp |
-2.8 |
| drb |
-4.3 |
| stre |
-4.5 |
| Passing |
|
| pss |
10.0 |
| ins |
3.8 |
| spd |
2.1 |
| fg |
1.7 |
| dnk |
1.6 |
| ft |
1.5 |
| oiq |
1.3 |
| stre |
-1.1 |
| tp |
-1.2 |
| jmp |
-1.9 |
| endu |
-1.9 |
| reb |
-1.9 |
| drb |
-3.8 |
| Turnovers |
|
| ft |
10.0 |
| ins |
8.7 |
| endu |
3.4 |
| drb |
2.9 |
| spd |
2.0 |
| stre |
1.0 |
| jmp |
-4.0 |
| fg |
-11.3 |
| oiq |
-13.1 |
| Rim |
|
| stre |
10.0 |
| pss |
3.7 |
| hgt |
3.5 |
| dnk |
2.6 |
| fg |
1.5 |
| ft |
-1.7 |
| oiq |
-2.1 |
| diq |
-3.8 |
| spd |
-4.0 |
| ins |
-9.6 |
| LowPost |
|
| stre |
10.0 |
| pss |
3.7 |
| hgt |
3.5 |
| dnk |
2.6 |
| fg |
1.5 |
| ft |
-1.7 |
| oiq |
-2.1 |
| diq |
-3.8 |
| spd |
-4.0 |
| ins |
-9.6 |
| MidRange |
|
| drb |
10.0 |
| fg |
8.7 |
| stre |
7.7 |
| hgt |
1.7 |
| reb |
1.2 |
| dnk |
-1.6 |
| ft |
-1.9 |
| diq |
-2.9 |
| tp |
-3.0 |
| jmp |
-4.0 |
| ins |
-4.6 |
| pss |
-4.9 |
| oiq |
-5.5 |
| 3Point |
|
| pss |
10.0 |
| spd |
8.0 |
| oiq |
7.7 |
| tp |
7.4 |
| hgt |
1.2 |
| reb |
-1.2 |
| endu |
-1.3 |
| fg |
-2.6 |
| jmp |
-3.4 |
| stre |
-7.7 |
| drb |
-11.2 |
| FreeThrow |
|
| ft |
10.0 |
| oiq |
1.9 |
| drb |
1.2 |
| tp |
-3.0 |
| fg |
-4.7 |
| Rebound |
|
| reb |
10.0 |
| hgt |
5.5 |
| fg |
3.8 |
| ins |
3.5 |
| stre |
1.7 |
| diq |
1.5 |
| tp |
-1.3 |
| drb |
-1.8 |
| endu |
-2.3 |
| pss |
-2.8 |
| ft |
-2.9 |
| dnk |
-4.6 |
| Steal |
|
| diq |
10.0 |
| spd |
8.3 |
| stre |
7.7 |
| ins |
2.4 |
| fg |
2.2 |
| ft |
1.4 |
| drb |
-1.4 |
| tp |
-2.6 |
| oiq |
-2.8 |
| dnk |
-5.4 |
| reb |
-7.6 |
| jmp |
-8.6 |
| Block |
|
| hgt |
10.0 |
| pss |
9.7 |
| stre |
9.4 |
| jmp |
7.6 |
| tp |
-1.4 |
| endu |
-2.6 |
| oiq |
-2.9 |
| reb |
-4.1 |
| ins |
-4.6 |
| spd |
-5.6 |
| drb |
-6.6 |
| Fouling |
|
| hgt |
10.0 |
| jmp |
5.2 |
| pss |
4.4 |
| stre |
3.0 |
| oiq |
1.8 |
| dnk |
-1.6 |
| fg |
-2.3 |
| tp |
-2.8 |
| diq |
-3.4 |
| drb |
-4.4 |
| reb |
-7.0 |
| spd |
-14.3 |
| DrawFoul |
|
| dnk |
10.0 |
| drb |
6.9 |
| ins |
5.2 |
| endu |
2.5 |
| oiq |
1.8 |
| reb |
-1.4 |
| fg |
-1.7 |
| diq |
-5.7 |
| ft |
-8.7 |
Positive Weights
| Usage |
|
| ins |
10.0 |
| spd |
2.7 |
| fg |
2.5 |
| pss |
2.0 |
| Passing |
|
| pss |
10.0 |
| ins |
1.5 |
| dnk |
1.5 |
| fg |
1.4 |
| Turnovers |
|
| ins |
10.0 |
| hgt |
6.7 |
| Rim |
|
| hgt |
10.0 |
| spd |
3.7 |
| dnk |
3.5 |
| LowPost |
|
| hgt |
10.0 |
| spd |
3.7 |
| dnk |
3.5 |
| MidRange |
|
| fg |
10.0 |
| hgt |
6.5 |
| spd |
2.3 |
| reb |
1.4 |
| 3Point |
|
| spd |
10.0 |
| tp |
8.6 |
| ft |
7.3 |
| pss |
4.9 |
| FreeThrow |
|
| ft |
10.0 |
| oiq |
5.3 |
| spd |
3.9 |
| pss |
3.0 |
| hgt |
2.2 |
| DrawFoul |
|
| dnk |
10.0 |
| ins |
7.0 |
| pss |
4.1 |
| spd |
1.7 |
| hgt |
1.6 |
